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Hello everyone, todayXM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Gold price is close to breaking through the 4,000 mark, the Federal Reserve bank reserves continue to decline, and the US government shutdown promotes safe haven demand." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (October 8, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$3,990 per ounce. Spot gold hit a record high of US$3,990.90 per ounce on Wednesday, and U.S. gold futures for December delivery once rose to 4 US$014.6 per ounce, helped by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month and continued safe-haven demand driven by the U.S. government shutdown; U.S. crude oil traded around US$62.15 per barrel, with oil prices steady on Tuesday as investors weighed OPEC+'s decision to only modestly increase production in November and signs that global supply may be oversupplied.
Reminder: The non-agricultural data in the fiscal calendar has not yet determined a specific release date. Due to the uncertainty of the US government shutdown negotiations, it will be updated daily for the time being. The specific release date and time need to be paid attention to at any time
US stocks closed lower on Tuesday. The continued US government shutdown prevented the release of economic data. Investors turned to secondary indicators and lwcgm.cnments from Federal Reserve officials to look for clues about economic weakness and monetary policy.
The three major indexes ended lower after a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday showed that the American people became increasingly worried about the prospects of the job market in September, and recent inflation expectations have also increased. The report received increased attention amid a federal data void as the government shutdown enters its seventh day due to partisan gridlock.
Investors can currently only rely on independent agency releasesSecondary data and lwcgm.cnments from monetary policymakers will be used to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the second time this year at this month's policy meeting.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said that the New York Fed's report may give traders an excuse to take profits. After all, the S&P 500 Index has risen for seven consecutive trading days. The longer the government shutdown lasts, the greater the uncertainty caused by the lack of economic data.
Economically sensitive sectors performed poorly, including residential construction, real estate, aviation and transportation sectors all underperformed the market.
Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist at Elmhurst Murphy & Sylvest in Illinois, said that the market is still very concerned about artificial intelligence driving everything, but I think this craze is gradually receding.
Fed Governor Milan reiterated his support for continuing to cut interest rates and emphasized the risks of excessive tightening policy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20% to 46602.98 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.38% to 6714.59 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 0.67% to 22788.36 points.
Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 Index, the consumer discretionary sector suffered the largest decline; while the consumer staples and utilities sectors were among the top gainers.
Tesla shares continued their decline, falling 4.5%, after the electric vehicle manufacturer released a lower-priced version of Model Y. AMD rose 3.8% after Jefferies upgraded its rating to "buy" and multiple brokerages also raised their target prices after the lwcgm.cnpany reached a supply agreement with OpenAI, driving a rebound in technology stocks.
IBM announced a partnership with artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, and its stock price rose 1.5%.
U.S. gold futures surpassed the $4,000 per ounce milestone for the first time on Tuesday, helped by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month and continued safe-haven demand driven by the U.S. government shutdown.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed up 0.7%, with a settlement price of $4,004.4, after reaching a high of $4,014.6. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,985.82 an ounce, having earlier hit a record high of $3,990.90. The main market for spot gold is the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, which is an indicator of global pricing.
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The current safe-haven capital flows are partly due to the government shutdown, and there is no sign that this will be resolved in the short term. So gold is still quite good to buy."
So far this year, gold prices have climbed 51%. Gold's gains have been driven by a variety of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, continued political and economic uncertainty, solid central bank buying, gold exchange-traded funds(ETF) inflows and dollar weakness.
On Tuesday, the US government shutdown entered its seventh day. This has delayed the release of key economic indicators, forcing investors to rely on secondary, non-government data to judge the timing and extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and Japan gripped currency and bond markets for a second day in a row.
Investors currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this month’s meeting, and expect another 25 basis points cut in December.
Data from the People's Bank of China showed that China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month in September.
Spot silver was at $47.86 an ounce, down 1.4%; platinum was at $1,617.41, down 0.5%; palladium was at $1,347.52, up 2.1%.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as investors weighed OPEC+'s decision to increase production only modestly in November against signs that a global supply glut may be possible.
The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 0.03% to US$65.45 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 0.06% at $61.73.
On the previous trading day, both major contracts rose by more than 1% as OPEC+ decided to collectively increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, an increase lower than market expectations.
ING analysts said the move showed the organization remained cautious in the face of global supply glut forecasts for the fourth quarter and next year.
StoneX analyst Alex Hodes pointed out in a report on Tuesday that market sentiment remains depressed, especially after Saudi Arabia decided to keep the official selling price of its main crude oil to Asia unchanged and did not increase it as analysts expected.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. said on Tuesday that the official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude oil was set at $70.22 a barrel in November, up from $70.10 in October.
On the demand side, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Group under the Indian Ministry of Petroleum showed that India’s fuel demand increased by 7% year-on-year in September.
On the supply side, the U.S. Energy lwcgm.cnrmation Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil production this year is expected to reach a record 13.53 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 13.44 million barrels per day.
JPMorgan Chase said that global oil inventories, including offshore oil storage, increased every week in September, with a cumulative increase of 123 million barrels in a single month.
The yen fell to a more than seven-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook intensified. Political uncertainty in France also weighed on the euro, while traders watched for signs of when the U.S. federal government will reopen.
The yen has continued to weaken since Takaichi Sanae was elected president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday. Sanae Takaichi is expected to become Japan's prime minister. She has promised to boost the economy through aggressive fiscal spending and criticized the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policy.strategy.
DRWTrading's Chicago strategist Lou Brien said investors will go through a while to try to figure out exactly how her policies will affect exchange rates.
Money market traders currently expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its October 30 policy meeting at 26%, far lower than about 60% before the high market Hayekawa wins the election.
The US dollar rose 1% against the yen at 151.86 yen, reaching 151.93 during the session, the highest since February 19.
Nevertheless, some analysts believe that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates in response to relatively high inflation.
Danish Bank's foreign exchange researcher Mohamad Al-Saraf said that the Bank of Japan may remain calm this month to remain cautious, but by December, they will get more data, and I think interest rates will be raised again by then, inflation will remain high, interest rates will remain low, and the possibility of raising interest rates this year remains. ”
The Japanese Finance Minister said that the authorities are closely monitoring the excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. The euro remains fragile, after the French Prime Minister resigned on Monday, increasing pressure on President Macron and casting a shadow on the prospect of fiscal rectification.
France may not be able to submit the 2026 budget on time, meaning parliament needs to pass an interim bill to authorize government funding from January 1 next year until the full budget is approved.
The euro fell 0.43% at 1 last trading session to 1 .1659. The dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.57.
The dollar weakened overall this year as markets feared worsening U.S. fiscal conditions, rising expectations of slowing economic growth, and President Trump’s tariff policy could keep investors away from U.S. assets.
However, the trend has been paused since the end of June, with the dollar basically maintaining a consolidation against most major currencies, and DRW’s Brien said he expects a soft dollar to restart due to the U.S. labor market The market weakened, the U.S. labor market was weaker than generally expected, and not only could a very dovish Fed chairman replace Powell next year, I think the Fed policy would be looser than the market currently expects. The market is currently limited in response to the government shutdown, but if the shutdown lasts too long, it may also drag down the dollar, as it will lead to weaker economic performance.
President Trump said on Tuesday that the government plans to cancel several projects due to the ongoing shutdown and will be in the next four to five days Details of layoffs were announced.
The shutdown has delayed the release of the September employment report, which attracted much attention last Friday, and other key data will be postponed until the government reopens.
A survey released by the New York Fed on Tuesday showed that Americans were more concerned about the job market outlook in September, while also raising expectations for short-term inflation paths.
Federal Director Milan said on Tuesday that he was more optimistic about the inflation outlook than others, saying that the current relative of the U.S. bond marketCalm support a rapid rate cut.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney, who is visiting Washington, held his second meeting with US President Trump at the White House on October 7 local time. The meeting lasted for two and a half hours, and Canada hopes to reach some important consensus on trade and tariff issues between the two sides, paving the way for the two countries to eventually reach a new economic and security agreement. In an interview with reporters at the Oval Office, Carney listed some of Trump's achievements in his second term. When Carney said "the most important in many aspects," Trump interrupted when Carney paused and said, "and the merger of Canada and the United States." Carney immediately said, "I didn't think so much." Over the past few months, Trump has publicly proposed the idea of "annexation of Canada" many times and expressed his willingness to achieve this goal through "economic power."
On the evening of October 7 local time, Hamas' chief negotiator Khalil Haya said after ending the second day of negotiations with Israel that the talks with Israel in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt "is to conduct responsible negotiations to achieve a ceasefire." Haya appreciates the efforts made by Arab and Islamic countries and other parties to promote the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Haya pointed out that the current goal is to end the conflict, exchange prisoners of war, and release Israeli detained personnel. Hamas hopes to establish a mechanism to ensure a permanent ceasefire and “get a tangible lwcgm.cnmitment from Israel to no longer restart the conflict.”
Affected by the decline in credit card balances, the pace of consumer lending in the United States in August was the slowest in six months. The total outstanding credit of consumers in August increased by $363 million, the Federal Reserve data released on Tuesday showed. The median estimate of a median increase of $14 billion. Revolving credit balances such as credit cards fell by about $6 billion, partly giving up strong July growth. Non-revolving credit such as car purchases and tuition fees increased by $6.3 billion. The report does not include mortgage loans.
On the 7th, indirect negotiations between the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel entered the second day. Sources close to Hamas said the round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations remained "hard and lwcgm.cnplicated". The 7th is the second anniversary of the outbreak of the new round of Pakistan-Israel conflict. Hamas issued a statement on the same day saying that the organization is lwcgm.cnmitted to achieving a lwcgm.cnprehensive permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, but the following conditions must be met in the ceasefire agreement: to ensure the smooth delivery of humanitarian and aid materials, to ensure the return of displaced persons to their homes, to immediately initiate the lwcgm.cnprehensive reconstruction process under the supervision of a Palestinian agency lwcgm.cnposed of independent technocrats, and to reach a fair agreement to exchange detained personnel. Hamas has not responded to Israel's view of a full ceasefireSeveral conditions are necessary, especially those related to the disarmament of Hamas and the future governance of Gaza. The source added that the technical team is currently discussing a detailed map of the withdrawal area submitted by the Israeli delegation, as well as a list of Palestinian prisoners that Israel plans to release. In addition, Hamas introduced the mechanism for releasing detained persons in Israel and other ideas.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the lwcgm.cnmanders of the Russian Ministry of Defense, General Staff and Special Military Operations on the 7th, he stated that the current strategic initiative lies entirely in the hands of the Russian Federation’s armed forces. National defense enterprises are delivering various high-precision weapons, missiles, ammunition and military equipment as planned. At the same time, the research and development of the latest lwcgm.cnbat weapons and their deployment to troops are advancing at an advanced speed. Putin pointed out that Ukrainian troops continued to retreat across the entire contact line. Ukraine carried out attacks on purely civilian facilities in deep areas of Russia in order to demonstrate its achievements to its Western "sponsors". Russia's task is to ensure the safety of Russian citizens and to ensure the security of strategic installations and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities. Putin emphasized that the overall mission of the Russian military remains unchanged - it must ensure that all goals set by the special military operation are achieved unconditionally.
Funding pressure in the U.S. money market remains high, and the bank reserves held by the Federal Reserve are gradually decreasing, indicating that the central bank may be approaching the end of its balance sheet reduction. Overnight funding markets, where banks and asset managers carry out daily lending, have been volatile since early September. Ultra-short-term interest rates, which have risen steadily as the Treasury replenishes cash reserves, remain stubbornly high. As a result, the spread between the overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate - the effective federal funds rate - is close to its widest since late 2024. Meanwhile, the latest data showed bank reserves fell to just under $3 trillion, the lowest level since January.
On the 7th local time, the European Parliament passed a resolution at a plenary session held in Strasbourg with 518 votes in favor, 96 votes against, and 24 abstentions. The resolution allows the EU to temporarily or permanently suspend the visa-free regime for third-country nationals eligible for short-term travel to the Schengen area. Currently, dozens of countries and regions, including the United States, Israel, and Australia, have signed visa-free agreements with Schengen countries. The latest changes provide that visas may be suspended if certain threats arise. The new rules also allow for individual restrictions on visa exemptions for government officials from offending countries. The initial suspension may be temporary but may become permanent if the violations are not corrected. The EU is also considering temporarily suspending the visa-free regime with Georgia if the country fails to fully lwcgm.cnply with standards during the October 26 parliamentary elections.
The People's Bank of China announced on the 7th that China's gold reserves at the end of September were 74.06 million ounces (about 23.03523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month-on-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold increase. At the end of August, gold reserves were 74.02 million ounces.
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