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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Vietnam's economic growth is strong: Vietnam's GDP rose by 8.23% year-on-year in the third quarter, the fastest growth rate in three years. The strong manufacturing and exports drove the VN index to soar by 2.6%. In order to cope with US tariffs, enterprises have stepped up production, and the electronics and textile industries are resilient. This strong economic growth data could make the Vietnamese Dong relatively stronger, and also have a positive impact on the currencies of countries that have close trade with Vietnam.
The RMB performed strongly: According to foreign exchange database lwcgm.cnrmation, the exchange rates of offshore RMB against the Canadian dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Mexican peso, Norwegian krone and other currencies were rising, while the RMB also rose against the Korean won, Icelandic krone and other currencies. This shows that the RMB's strong position in the international foreign exchange market may be related to the stable development of China's economy and the increased market confidence in the RMB.
The US government shuts down and enters the second week: The US government shuts down and enters the second week, and there is no sign of ease in the party deadlock in Washington. The Senate voted hard and House Speaker Johnson insisted that the Senate accepts the House bill first. If soldiers and civil servants cannot receive wages by mid-October, consumption and public opinion pressure will soar. The U.S. government shutdown may have a negative impact on the dollar, as it may trigger market concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and reduce investors' confidence in the dollar.
The yen fell sharply: Japan's financial market is pricing the possible return of "Abenomics". The Nikkei 225 index rose more than 4%, but the yen exchange rate against the US dollar fell 1.5% to approach the 150 mark. Honda Yuiro, the core economic consultant of Takashi Saemi, believesThe Bank of Japan said it was too early to raise interest rates in October and December would be more appropriate. This statement caused the yen to continue to fall after a brief rebound, depreciating 1.91% during the day. The sharp depreciation of the yen may affect Japan's import costs and inflation rate, and will also have a certain impact on the pattern of the global foreign exchange market.
The euro weakened: the French Prime Minister resigned less than a month after taking office, the French stock index once fell by more than 2%, the yield on 10-year French bonds rose by more than 10 basis points intraday, the interest rate difference between France and Germany hit the largest in nine months, and the euro fell to a one-week low. In addition, the European Central Bank expects inflation to be 2.3% in 2025, lwcgm.cnpared with the previous forecast of 2.1%. A weaker euro may be beneficial to European export lwcgm.cnpanies, but it may also raise concerns about Europe's economic growth prospects.
Trump announced additional tariffs: U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the United States will be subject to a 25% tariff. This move may trigger an escalation of global trade tensions and have a negative impact on the currency exchange rates of relevant countries, especially those that are highly dependent on U.S. truck exports.
The bankruptcy of the auto parts giant triggered market concerns: The sudden bankruptcy of the auto parts giant First Brands shocked Wall Street with its lwcgm.cnplex debt of up to 12 billion US dollars. Although the mainstream view believed that it was just an "isolated mistake", the legendary short seller "Dr. Doom" issued a stern warning, lwcgm.cnparing this opaque bankruptcy to the Enron scandal, revealing the systemic risks hidden in the $2 trillion private credit market. The incident could trigger risk aversion in the market, causing investors to seek safe assets, putting pressure on risky currencies.
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