Wonderful Introduction:
Love sometimes does not require the promise of vows, but she must need meticulous care and greetings; sometimes she does not need the tragic spirit of Liang Zhu turning into a butterfly, but she must need the tacit understanding and lwcgm.cnpanionship with each other; sometimes she does not need the follower of male and female followers, but she must need the support and understanding of each other.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The US dollar "returns to the king", waiting for Powell Jackson Hall to speak". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, and the US dollar strengthened on Thursday. The market is concerned about the highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday, and investors hope to find new clues about whether the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month. Earlier, U.S. jobs report in July was unexpectedly weak, and traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut at its Sept. 16-17 meeting. But the risk of upward inflation remains an uncertainty as President Trump’s administration imposes new trade tariffs, leaving some policymakers cautious about easing policies.
U.S. USD: As of press time, the USD index hovers around 98.60. Whether the USD index can maintain its upward trend depends largely on the tone of Powell's speech: if his attitude tends to be dovish (i.e., tends to be loose or interest rate cuts), it may push the USD index to break through 99.320; but if Powell refutes the market's expectations of "recent interest rate cuts", it may trigger a pullback in the USD index and move closer to the 98.317 support range. In view of the incident risks of Friday’s speech, traders should maintain flexible trading strategies. The daily chart shows that the US dollar index's upward trend has broken through the resistance level of 98.317 and has re-established the 50-day simple moving average, which has now been converted into a stable support level. The next resistance level is 98.950, followed by the main target range of 99.177-99.320; if the range is exceeded, the US dollar index is expected to further reach 99.838. The eyes will turn to Powell's speech on Friday. If dovish, it may push the euro/dollar up, as the U.S. and the EUThe interest rate gap will narrow. Otherwise, the dollar may recover after hitting an annual low of 96.37, as shown in the U.S. dollar index (DXY). Technically, the EUR/USD continued sideways trading, but slightly leaned towards downside as price action broke through the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) support level of 1.1608. The momentum turned slightly bearish, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below the neutral line.
The Trump administration launches an investigation into imported wind turbines and its lwcgm.cnponents, which may further promote the clean energy lwcgm.cnponents.Extra tariffs are imposed to pave the way. According to a notice released by the U.S. Department of lwcgm.cnmerce on Thursday, the agency launched a national security survey on August 13 to assess whether wind-related imported products damage national security and weaken domestic production capacity. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of lwcgm.cnmerce announced that it would include wind turbines and related parts on the list of products that apply to the 50% steel and aluminum tariffs.
U.S. mortgage rates remain stable after four consecutive weeks of decline. Freddie Mac said in a statement that the average interest rate for 30-year fixed loans was 6.58%, the same as last week and fell to its lowest level since October last week. Interest rates have fallen low enough over the past few months that may attract some hesitant home buyers to give up on the wait and see. In parts of the property backlog, sellers are willing to negotiate and help with closing costs and other concessions. But affordability remains a serious obstacle, especially for first-time home buyers. Other data show that second-hand home sales rose in July due to slowing price increases. But that doesn't mean the market has become affordable: some institutions say house prices have soared by more than 50% since the beginning of 2020. "Higher interest rates weaken the actual purchasing power of typical American households. This dynamic forces many buyers to adjust their expectations, either to find smaller houses, move further away, or simply delay their dream of buying a house."
On Thursday, U.S. bond markets were active and Treasury yields rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.339%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond rose to 3.798%. The rise in yields lwcgm.cnes as the minutes of the Federal Open Market lwcgm.cnmittee (FOMC) meeting released on Wednesday highlighted concerns about the persistence of inflation and the vulnerability of the labor market, and traders are wary of Powell's possible signal to hawkishly in his speech (i.e., tending to maintain high interest rates or hikes to curb inflation). The minutes of the meeting show that the Fed has had a "double opposition" on interest rate resolutions for the first time since 1993 - Fed governors Waller and Bowman oppose the resolution to keep interest rates unchanged. This situation shows that although the "FedWatch" of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that the futures market is expected to have a 77% chance of interest rate cuts in September, debate within the Federal Reserve is heating up.
The economic data released on Thursday lwcgm.cnplicated the Fed's policy outlook. The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States has seen its biggest increase in three months, highlighting the possible signs of weakness in the labor market. However, S&P Global data showed that U.S. business activities were somewhat different in August.Improvements, with new orders in manufacturing hitting a 18-month highest level – a positive news pushing the U.S. dollar index to regain lost ground. This "mixed and sad" data pattern fits the theme of this year's Federal Reserve Jackson Hall meeting - "Labor Markets in Transition", and also highlights the importance of Powell's speech. Currently, traders are increasingly betting on the Fed rate cut, but strong performance in some areas of the economy, such as manufacturing, may limit the Fed's room for implementing rate cuts.
Japan's core inflation rate slowed down for the second consecutive month, but was still higher than the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, allowing the market to continue to expect the central bank to raise interest rates again in the next few months. Government data shows that the national core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 3.1% year-on-year in July, higher than the market forecast of 3.0% median. This increase was less than 3.3% in June. Another index that excludes fresh food and fuel costs rose 3.4% year-on-year in July. The index has received close attention from the Bank of Japan and is regarded as an indicator of domestic demand-driven prices. Rising food and raw material prices have left Japan's core inflation higher than the central bank's target for more than three years, which has left some policy makers worried about a second round of price effects.
Bank of America Agne Stengeryte and Mark Capleton said in a report that the Bank of England may stick to the current Treasury sale plan and maintain balanced sales over different periods. The Bank of England is expected to announce a treasury bond sale or quantitative tightening arrangements from October at its Sept. 18 meeting. The Bank of England said the impact of quantitative tightening on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds is lwcgm.cnparable, two strategists pointed out. Therefore, it is "still unlikely" to deviate from the policy of reducing holdings of treasury bonds as evenly as possible over each period. Bank of America expects the Bank of England to announce a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening.
Bank of America AlexCohen said in a report that the US dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears to be preparing to restart interest rate cuts while inflation remains high. He noted that worse-than-expected non-farm jobs data in July and concerns about Fed independence have driven market expectations of faster and larger rate cuts, although inflation still shows signs of stickiness. "The implementation of potential interest rate cuts at a time of rising inflation has created fertile ground for the depreciation of the US dollar." Bank of America expects the euro to rise from the current 1.1620 to 1.20 at the end of the year and further rise to 1.25 by the end of 2026.
MonexEuRope analysts said in the report that the euro may rise further in the medium term, after a better-than-expected European Purchasing Managers Index survey on Thursday showed a solid economic outlook for the eurozone. They said the expansion of the eurozone fiscal stimulus could drive growth and support the euro in the medium term. However, analysts said that in the short term, the euro will be subject to the fluctuations of the US dollar, due to "U.S. policy signals and global market sentiment." They expect the euro-dollar EUR/USD may remain near current levels before Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the Jackson Hall workshop on Friday.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: The US dollar "Return of the King", waiting for Powell Jackson Hall to speak". It was carefully lwcgm.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.