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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The dawn of Russia and Ukraine is emerging and it is difficult to shake the market! Powell's speech is final, and the US dollar rebounds and bears are still eyeing it." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday, the US dollar index rebounded during the day and returned to above the $98 mark. As of now, the US dollar index is priced at 98.17
White House Meeting in the United States, Ukraine President Zelensky said "Thank you" eight times in a row to kick off the Tze meeting. It is reported that Ukraine proposed to purchase US$100 billion of US weapons in exchange for security guarantees. After the meeting, Trump called Russian President Putin and said on social media that he began to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined. After that, there will be a trilateral meeting.
Hamas agreed to the mediator's proposal for a ceasefire in Singapore Gaza. The new proposal reportedly includes a roadmap to a full ceasefire, starting from the first day of the ceasefire, negotiations on a full agreement or permanent ceasefire will be initiated. During the 60-day ceasefire, Hamas released half, 10 still alive Israeli detainees, and returned half, 18 bodies of detainees, in exchange for Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners.
Trump: Executive Order to Repeal Mailed Ballots.
The U.S. homebuilder confidence index fell to a two-and-a-half low.
GSCCommodityIntelligence: This week's Jackson Hall meeting may be the "strongest in history" trading opportunity? (I)
Federal Chairman Powell will be at the Jackson Hall meeting this FridayPost the most decisive speech in his career. Faced with stubborn inflation, the unemployment rate of 4.3%, and Trump's repeated public pressure on interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is in a "dilemma" situation of keeping its troops or lowering interest rates.
We believe that Powell's remarks on the occasion where the world's most important central banks may lock in the trajectory of the global financial market for the rest of 2025. For traders, this is also an opportunity to "success or failure in this way". Since the Federal Reserve set its "dual mission", it has never faced such a sharp contradiction: inflation far exceeds the 2% target, and the once unstoppable US labor market has revealed cracks. Some differences within the Federal Open Market lwcgm.cnmittee are obvious—hawks oppose premature rate cuts, while dovish (headed by Director Bowman) call for radical easing to withstand the risk of recession.
The market has now lwcgm.cnpleted pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at its September meeting, but Powell may bring unpredictable unexpected situations, and the policy path signal he revealed will inevitably trigger fluctuations in global financial markets. Contradictory economic backgrounds and naked policy threats: Trump insulted Powell as a "stubborn idiot" and described him as "Mr. Too Chi", while Treasury Secretary Bescent put pressure on a 50 basis point interest rate cut. There are also rumors that Trump is looking for Powell's successor after his term ends in May 2026. The risk is that the Federal Reserve's politicization may crush global confidence in its monetary policy and exacerbate various asset volatility.
GSCCommodityIntelligence: This week's Jackson Hall conference may be the "strongest" trading opportunity in history? (II)
Dove Powell may weaken the US dollar, pushing funds into safe-haven metals such as gold, silver, palladium and platinum, and helping it challenge many years and even historical highs in the lwcgm.cning days or weeks. On the contrary, hawkish stance may trigger a rise in the US dollar, triggering a short-term pullback in lwcgm.cnmodities (traders can capture quick profit opportunities). In this event, the uncertainty of risk returns is amazing. A precise gold, silver or crude oil transaction can offset the income from previous months or even years.
In addition, the second half of 2025 is extraordinary. The Federal Reserve's decision this week not only defines Powell's legacy, but also may trigger the biggest opportunity for lwcgm.cnmodities since the post-epidemic boom. In a world where the Fed's outlook is divergent and global central bank policy differentiation, clarity in policy lwcgm.cnmunication is the most valuable asset.
Facefield Bank: The expectation of interest rate cuts drives the S&P 500 to hit a new high, and the bubble risk may be above the 7XXX point
The inflation accident index has fallen to the low point of this cycle, and the inflation data continues to be lower than expected. In addition, the Fed's real interest rate is still above average, which provides room for the Fed to restart its interest rate cut cycle. Our economists expect the next rate cut to happen in December, but ultimately believe that interest rates will drop to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of 2026.
When the private sector leverage is low, the Fed rate cut usually prompts U.S. stocks to revalue. In other words, whenWhen default cycles are not as extreme, the Fed rate cut usually drives a revaluation of U.S. stock markets. Nominal earnings per share (EPS) should continue to grow in the context of structural nominal growth caused by global fiscal spending and supply chain replication. This nominal EPS growth and the background of the Fed's rate cut to a "new normal" could shorten any pullback in the S&P 500 and push the index to a new high.
After the shift in global fiscal policy, the long-term background of structural nominal growth has been firmly established. At present, the S&P 500 index is only a few points away from our target by the end of 2025. However, the index still has upside risks, as the Fed still has room for action, including the unfinished steeper yield curve and the weak dollar. In addition, the "fanatic" of the US stock market also requires the broadness of index performance. We set the target range of the S&P 500 at 5500-6750 points, and we are expected to reach 6900 points by the end of 2026. We will only see bubble risk after exceeding 7500 points.
Mitsubishi UF: A review of Jackson Hall's annual meeting, will Powell give a signal for a rate cut this time?
The US dollar has continued to weaken over the past week. Earlier this month, a weak July non-farm jobs report and a significant downward revision to May and June employment data initially triggered a new round of dollar weakness. This makes market participants more convinced that the Fed may restart interest rate cuts as early as next month. Although U.S. inflation data released last week were mixed, this did not significantly change market expectations for the Fed's rate cut next month.
The U.S. interest rate market is still expected to cut interest rates by 21 basis points in September. The next key event in the Federal Reserve's policy lwcgm.cnmunication will be the Jackson Hall annual economic seminar scheduled to be held from August 21 to 23. The theme of this year's seminar was "Labor Market Transformation: Population, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy".
Historically, the Jackson Hall Economic Seminar has been a key place for the Federal Reserve to send signals of major monetary policy changes. At last year's Jackson Hall meeting, Fed Chairman Powell made it clear that it was time to start a rate cut, followed by a 50 basis point cut at the Federal Open Market lwcgm.cnmittee (FOMC) meeting in September. He said at the time that the time for policy adjustment had lwcgm.cne. The direction is clear, because inflation is on a "sustainable path" and moving towards its goal.
At this year's Jackson Hall conference, market participants will closely monitor whether Powell will confirm expectations for a rate cut next month. The risk is that Powell may not provide clear signals on the timing of the next rate cut, thus buying more time for the Fed to continue evaluating upcoming data ahead of the September FOMC meeting. This may help curb downward pressure on the dollar in the short term.
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